From energy to carbon: accounting for grid variability and uncertainty in low carbon design
Kit Elsworth
Proposal Status
Ready for Committee Review
Username
Kit Elsworth
Proposer First Name
Kit
Proposer Email
kelsworth@kierantimberlake.com
Proposer Last Name
Elsworth
Proposer Phone
(215) 922-6600 x140
Proposer Job Title
Building Performance Specialist, Researcher
Proposed Session Description
For nearly two decades, building professionals have prioritized energy efficiency however, as the climate crisis accelerates, electrification and operational carbon has become the keystone metric. A knowledge gap has emerged that prevents us from agreeably converting energy use to carbon emissions and confidently developing insights to influence design and operations. This presentation assembles experts in design and research to outline different data sources and propose an accessible framework that forecasts the hourly variability of the power grid’s carbon emissions rates based on future scenarios. This novel framework will help build insights on reducing operational carbon emissions and rethink views on building systems and operations.
Why is this session important?
The urgency of the climate crisis cannot be understated. As professionals who develop, design, and operate the largest source of carbon emissions by sector, we have a responsibility to evaluate carbon footprint of our buildings and incorporate the analysis into our design and operations. The rapid shift from energy efficiency to carbon emissions necessitates that building professionals are using the appropriate tools to model operational carbon emissions for their projects. Every building professional should be able to distinguish between the various carbon metrics: average annual carbon emission rates, average hourly carbon emission rates, and hourly short-run marginal emission rates, and hourly long-run marginal emission rates. Hourly long-run marginal carbon emission rates are perhaps the least well known but the most representative of a building’s operational carbon footprint. When integrating this into design, marginal emission rates can provide a more sobering perspective on a building’s design compared to hourly average emission rates, which hare more commonly used for carbon modeling. It is imperative that designers evaluate current and forecasted emissions as the energy grid evolves, especially when considering the push for electrification.
Comments
Round 1: MAYBE. Yes it seems
Round 1: MAYBE. Yes it seems the can only explain one side of the issue, assessing the carbon emissions from time of grid use. But can they go into how a building may be able to design around this? And/or more about how grid makup affects this and how? Seems like they are missing some more depth. But they have many speakers so perhaps there is a plan to add to it?
Diversity and Inclusiveness
Climate change is a global issue and more often an issue that affects the global population disproportionately. The presentation will speak to climate equity since we as designers of the built environment contribute to the greatest source of carbon emissions. Hence, we have a responsibility to address carbon emissions and ensure that the framework we are discussing is accessible to all communities.
Learning Objectives
Describe the uses of and differences between average carbon emissions rates and marginal carbon emissions rates.
Build confidence in predicting operational hourly marginal carbon emissions from energy model data.
Recognize how a project’s corresponding grid fuel mixes and carbon emission rates evolve over time.
Identify use cases for incorporating carbon emissions data into building design.
Has this session been presented before?
No
NYC 2022 Areas of Focus
Session Format
Interview or structured conversation among panelists
Strongest Content Connection - NYC 2022
Comments about your speaker roster
As members of KieranTimberlake transdisciplinary research group, Kit Elsworth and Surya Prabhakaran perform technical analysis and engage clients to ensure projects are incorporating operational carbon into design decisions. KieranTimberlake and PAE worked together on a project to (successfully) propose a new building disconnect from a university fossil fuel system and achieve an all-electric, zero operational carbon design. Pieter Gagnon is a researcher at NREL and develops Cambium, a dataset that contains hourly cost, emissions, and energy sector operational data for future scenarios in the United States.
Reviewer 1
Bayer, Sara
Proposal #
142
Committee Decision
Rejected
Looking at the proposal, I'm
ROUND 1: MAYBE - Looking at the proposal, I'm not sure how their method differs from other established hourly analysis work (I see they call out "hourly long-run marginal emission rates" but what are the actual ramifications? They say it's the most accurate but by how much more and how do they translate this into savings?). May be interesting, may be redundant. Likely this needs a follow-up call unless others are familiar with their work.